Sunday, September 9, 2012

Bounces

Think of what it means to get a negative bounce from your party's convention, which is what the data seems to suggest for Mitt Romney after the Republican convention. Measuring the impact of the Republican convention is difficult this year, because the two conventions were so close together in time, so there are only a couple of days of relevant polling data in between. (We don't have enough data yet to measure the impact of the Democratic convention, but it is starting to look like a significant benefit for the Democratic ticket.)

But if, as appears to be the case, the Republicans actually suffered a net loss in support after three days of broadcasting their message to the widest possible audience, that means the more people hear from Romney and the Republicans, the less they like what they're hearing. And that means that the Romney strategy of carpet-bombing swing states with heavy doses of television advertising is not likely to be as helpful to their campaign as they may think. That also means that the Romney fund-raising advantage, most of which goes to fuel that heavy dose of TV advertising, might be outweighed by the Obama campaign's substantial advantage in both online and in-person organizing.

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