Friday, July 27, 2012

Polls

While the national polls show the presidential race as a dead heat, right now various compilations of state-by-state polls (TPM, Huffington Post, Nate Silver) are all showing President Obama ahead in every single one of the so-called battleground states (generally thought of as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, give or take a couple). Every single one of those states except for one: North Carolina.

Let's see. Where did the Democrats decide to hold their convention this year? Oh yeah, Charlotte. That will put North Carolina in the spotlight for a few days as the home of Democrats and the center of Obamaland. And will likely give the president a boost just where he might need one. (He can go over the top without North Carolina, but it would still be a nice state to win.)

It's almost spooky, isn't it? Like the people running the party and the campaign could see a couple of years into the future, and knew exactly where to locate the convention to turn the tide.

I'm not saying the election is in the bag, but the president is looking very strong at the moment on a state-by-state basis. And the state-by-state election is the only one that counts.

(270towin.com) (Close observers of this map will note that they also consider Missouri a battleground state, but I'll put it in Romney's column, as do most of the pollsters, so as not to confuse my point.)

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