Monday, January 2, 2012


With all eyes focused on the caucuses in Iowa tomorrow, many political prognosticators are afraid to make any predictions about the outcome, calling it too close to call in advance. Never fear; I will leap into the breach.

In order to predict the outcome of the Iowa caucuses accurately, you must understand the factors that are decisive in assessing the strengths of the various campaigns. Which candidate is most popular according to the polls? Which candidate has the strongest organization in the state? Who has the most enthusiastic volunteers? Who is making the most phone calls? Who has raised the most money?

Going beyond the "inside baseball" questions of tactics and organization, it is also helpful to try to answer questions such as, which candidate has the most impressive record of accomplishments? Which candidate has the most charisma? Who has the personal qualities to inspire large numbers of supporters and project a confident ability to lead?

Once you have figured out all of the relevant questions, the answer is easy. There is only one candidate who is leading on every single one of the above criteria, and that is Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has eight offices in Iowa; no other candidate comes close. And when all those other candidates pack up and turn their attention to New Hampshire and South Carolina and elsewhere, Obama's Iowa staff and volunteers will still be busy canvassing. Obama is running virtually unopposed, and is therefore certain to rack up an overwhelming victory, while none of the other candidates the media is so focused on, is likely to obtain even a majority of votes. The Obama campaign is staying relentlessly positive, and even though the media is quick to pick up on any signs of dissension and disenchantment, Democratic caucus-goers will in fact be more united than they have been in recent memory.

As far as that other party's caucuses, I see no reason to pay much attention. You can hear more than enough about those people elsewhere.

1 comment:

  1. << Who has raised the most money? >>

    Happy New Year, Joe. Fuuny stuff!

    The story of modern American politics.

    As Carly Simon sang (in what could have been an ode to Obama's ability to raise money) during the movie "The Spy Who Loved Me"

    Nobody does it better
    Makes me feel sad for the rest
    Nobody does it half as good as you
    Baby, you're the best