In order to predict the outcome of the Iowa caucuses accurately, you must understand the factors that are decisive in assessing the strengths of the various campaigns. Which candidate is most popular according to the polls? Which candidate has the strongest organization in the state? Who has the most enthusiastic volunteers? Who is making the most phone calls? Who has raised the most money?
Going beyond the "inside baseball" questions of tactics and organization, it is also helpful to try to answer questions such as, which candidate has the most impressive record of accomplishments? Which candidate has the most charisma? Who has the personal qualities to inspire large numbers of supporters and project a confident ability to lead?
eight offices in Iowa; no other candidate comes close. And when all those other candidates pack up and turn their attention to New Hampshire and South Carolina and elsewhere, Obama's Iowa staff and volunteers will still be busy canvassing. Obama is running virtually unopposed, and is therefore certain to rack up an overwhelming victory, while none of the other candidates the media is so focused on, is likely to obtain even a majority of votes. The Obama campaign is staying relentlessly positive, and even though the media is quick to pick up on any signs of dissension and disenchantment, Democratic caucus-goers will in fact be more united than they have been in recent memory.
As far as that other party's caucuses, I see no reason to pay much attention. You can hear more than enough about those people elsewhere.