All Nate Silver will tell you is that the Democrats have about an 83% chance of holding onto the Senate after the midterm elections, and a 27% chance of holding the House, and I'm sure his analysis is sound based on the data at his disposal. But his predictions are filled with so many caveats and contingencies that they are about as useful as the weatherman telling you that there is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. I, on the other hand, will go out on a limb and tell you exactly what is going to happen on election night this year:
-Republicans will say that the election results amount to a resounding repudiation of the whole Obama agenda, and show that the country wants to turn in a completely different direction, toward lower taxes, smaller government and less regulation.
-Democrats will say that the party in power almost always suffers severe losses in the midterm elections, comparable to what happened this year, and it is amazing that the Democrats did as well as they did considering the state of the economy and continuing high unemployment. Meanwhile, the country as a whole has shown no desire to return to the failed policies of the Bush years.
-Conservatives in both parties will say that the election results prove that the Obama administration needs to move toward the center, and stop trying to promote a doctrinaire, radical, left wing agenda.
-Liberals will say that the election results prove that the Obama administration needs to move toward the left, and pay more attention to his base. Democrats would have done better if Obama wasn't so wishy-washy and conciliatory.
-Partisans on the right will say that Obama now has no choice but to trim back his proposals and adopt the Republican program of lower taxes and smaller government; while partisans on the left will say that Obama must resist this program more strongly than before. Moderates will point out that the president is going to have to use all of his negotiating skills to deal with a more resistant Congress, and will now have the chance to show whether he can get beyond partisan stalemate.
-Fox News will herald the Republicans' triumphs, while MSNBC will gloat about any Tea Party candidates who fail to win election. Over on CNN, Wolf Blitzer will continue to look befuddled.
Remember, you heard it all here first.